Thursday 23 December 2010

Whatever Your Opinion of the Lib Dems May Be...

Over the last few weeks the understandable anger that a large number of people are feeling towards Nick Clegg, and/or the Liberal Democrats has rather clouded the issue of electoral reform and caused many to question whether voting Yes to the Alternative Vote might be a good idea after all.

So it's about time I set out my own thoughts on this and argue why not only is anger at a particular party a bad reason to say No, but in fact saying No to AV won't punish them.

Let's go over what we already know first of all. We had a general election. At the time of voting the Labour government had disappointed many people from going to war against our will, introducing expensive unnecessary infringements on our liberties such as ID cards, and failing to keep our economy as healthy as it ought to be. Oh and an expenses scandal as well with which very few of us were best pleased.

You'd expect this to mean a comfortable walkover for the Conservatives. It had been 13 years, Thatcher a distant memory to many voters and Cameron promising all sorts of change, and change sounded like something that could be good. Only the Conservatives didn't really work hard enough to capitalise. Labour handed the election to them on a plate, but they weren't able to take it. I wouldn't have been at all surprised had we seen a mirror image of 1997 where the opposition capitalised on a Conservative government that had completely lost the plot in the eyes of the public. But no, it didn't happen.

This was the first election to occur following the ubiquity of social media, and we had televised party leader debates as well. There was Gordon Brown looking tired, and there was David Cameron failing to wipe the floor with him, and there was Nick Clegg picking up on both of these things and grabbing the opportunity with both hands. He certainly won my vote.

But then came polling day and the reality of First Past the Post hit home. Thanks to the current voting system many voters' choices were limited. There were many who weren't that keen on Labour but couldn't let the Tories in so they voted Labour anyway. There were many who were absolutely fed up with Labour and saw that despite looking rather weak themselves the Conservatives were the only realistic possibility if you wanted change. And so far more of the votes went to those two parties than they merited. Even then, between them the two parties only managed about 65% of the vote but still got nearly all of the seats.

I must at this point make a special mention to those wonderful people in Brighton who said "you know what, stuff tactical voting, I'm going to vote for what I really want!", and they got what they wanted as well, but it shouldn't have been so difficult and wouldn't be under a fairer voting system.

The Lib Dems ended up in a bizarre position with almost a quarter of the votes, but a far smaller proportion of the seats. The weakness of both the Labour and Conservative parties left the Lib Dems in a position where they could form a coalition with either party. So they did this, and following massive demonstrations from Take Back Parliament they did it on the condition of electoral reform, namely a referendum on the Alternative Vote. At first we were all disappointed with this offer because we wanted a proportional system and the Alternative Vote isn't proportional.

However looking at the positives AV is still a massive improvement on the current system, requiring a majority to win and allowing voters to express more complete opinions of the available candidates, and not forcing anyone to choose between a tactical vote and a wasted vote. Small change, big difference, giving power to the voters and momentum to those pushing for further reform. So that's why all those who want reform enough to campaign for it in the first place are backing this change so that we're in a better position to ask for more. But that's another story.

So fast forward a few months and the Lib Dems are in a coalition government with the Conservatives. The Conservatives make up most of the government so they come up with most of the policies. The Lib Dems made promises before the election not consistent with Conservative policies and now find themselves having to break their promises in order to keep the government together. It's upset people, understandably.

But voting No to AV just to punish them is not the answer.

First of all: We'd be condemning the country, voters of every party to at least another generation of First Past the Post elections sending any hope of electoral reform right to back square one. We'd be ensuring that we keep the voting system that got us into this situation in the first place so it could very easily happen again. They've had 11 hung parliaments in Canada under FPTP after all. Only one in Australia under AV.

Secondly: It would be the Lib Dems again that have to make these deals in each hung parliament. They're the third party and would never be overtaken as such by the likes of Greens or UKIP under FPTP. The Lib Dems would still receive tactical votes in many constituencies despite their damaged reputation and gain more votes than they would under AV.

Thirdly: If your main interest really is in hurting the Lib Dems, voting Yes To AV would be your best option. Under AV voters would be free to punish any politicians who don't do a good job. Even if there are parties more disliked than the Lib Dems you wouldn't have to vote the Lib Dems first just to keep them out. That's one of the wonderful things about preferential voting.

Finally: The people you're really angry at are the ones who are the present day Lib Dems. Not the Lib Dems of the 90s, or their SDP predecessors, and not necessarily the Lib Dems of 10 years or 20 years from now. You might want to punish Nick Clegg, but I would speculate that he's doomed anyway. AV would allow you to punish him, and/or the Lib Dems as long as he's in charge, and still leave yourself the option to forgive the Lib Dems under a better leader if you so wish, or you could bury the Lib Dems entirely and let them be overtaken by another party if they show no signs of improvement. AV gives you that power as a voter to reward hardworking MPs and punish bad ones.

The point is that you've got to look beyond present day situations, and beyond party politics and see the big picture. The longterm goal is to ensure that voters get as much say as possible, as much say as each other, and more say than the politicians. That is why you must say Yes to AV, especially if you are upset with any politicians from any party.

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